Monday, March 1, 2010

Funny Figures and Mad Money

There were some interesting comments last month about budgets and debt, including: “Mr. Obama quadrupled our debt”, (a line that we had previously heard from a zealous Republican partisan in “rebuttal” to the State of the Union address.) Obviously, Tom took that statement and ran with it Robbinsense sent our staff scurrying to find the source of this dubious statistic.


Pull up this website to follow along. There it is, bigger than life. (First, this graph is not charting debt, it’s charting the government deficit. Avowed "conservatives" are frequently loose with specifics.) Bush deficit in 2008: about $450 Billion; Obama deficit in 2009: a whopping $1.85 Trillion! Case shut!


I have a problem with this, having lived through the period: the statistics don't jive with my memory. Where do these figures come from? Who is “The Foundry”? If we look a little closer and uncover hidden details, it turns out this is The Heritage Foundation, a group that by its own description:


“Founded in 1973, The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institution—a think tank—whose mission is to formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense. We believe the principles and ideas of the American Founding are worth conserving and renewing. As policy entrepreneurs, we believe the most effective solutions are consistent with those ideas and principles.”


This looks suspicious. $400 Billion in 2008---that’s odd. Why would the figures projected for 2009 before Mr. Obama took office be three times higher?


· Deficit when Obama took office: By the time Obama took office, the black ink (of the Clinton years) had turned to gushers of red. "CBO projects that the deficit this year will total $1.2 trillion," CBO said in its "Budget and Economic Outlook." That was released Jan. 8, 2009, only days before Obama’s inauguration. Update Feb 5: The $1.2 trillion projection would have been $966 billion had CBO been accounting for mortgage losses then the way they were eventually treated in the official deficit figures. See clarification below.


In all fairness, Mr. Obama was off also in his State of the Union address. He claimed that Bush left him a $1.3 Trillion deficit. Well, no one’s perfect.


After expanding the "Foundry" chart for clarity, let’s add the figures from the chart:


(2000: ($237) Billion SURPLUS---Clinton’s final year in office)


2001: ($120) Billion SURPLUS---left over from Clinton budget

2002: 140 Billion deficit

2003 380

2004 410

2005 310

2006 230

2007 150

2008 430

Tot: 1.930 (Trillion)


According to this graph, and The Heritage Foundation, the total debt accrued from the eight years of Bush presidency is $1.93 Trillion! Very interesting, since there’s little dispute that Mr. Bush entered office with $5.6 Trillion in government debt and left with about $10.5 Trillion, an accumulation of roughly $5 Trillion, not $1.93 T. Who are these people? Given that the Bush deficit figures are obviously cooked, we can assume the Obama figures are cooked also to corroborate anything that The Heritage Foundation wants to “prove”. (“Reliable” sources put the 2009 figure at about $1.45 Trillion.)


Cross-check these figures with a chart from Wikipedia. This is usually a pretty reliable source, as it is largely assembled by web-users. When figures or information is unconfirmed or disputed, Wikipedia posts a disclaimer.


Clearly Tom wasn’t talking about growth of government debt. Mr. Obama entered office with total debt of approximately $11 Trillion. It’s now about $12.5 Trillion (not $40 T!)


If one wants to look for real spend-thrifts, we must look to Republicans. Ronald Reagan almost quadrupled government debt, in eight years: $0.9 Trillion in 1981 to $3.1 Trillion in ’88. With inertia from the Reagan budget, George H. W. Bush piled on another $2 Trillion. We see from the figures above that George W. Bush doubled government debt during his tenure. These were both periods of prosperity for this country. Isn’t that when we’re supposed to rein the budget in? But Republicans continue calling Democrats the big spenders. It’s a war of words for the GOP…they make up their own facts.


The internet is an awesome tool. Funny Figures & Mad Money can be traced by anyone with a small dose of skepticism. Check your figures.

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